Can artificial intelligence predict glaucomatous visual field progression?: A spatial-ordinal convolutional neural network model

Abstract

Purpose: To develop an artificial neural network model incorporating both spatial and ordinal approaches to predict glaucomatous visual field (VF) progression. Design: Cohort study. Methods From a cohort of primary open-angle glaucoma patients, 9212 eyes of 6047 patients who underwent regular reliable VF examinations for >4 years were included. We constructed all possible spatial-ordinal tensors by stacking 3 consecutive VF tests (VF-blocks) with at least 3 years of follow-up. Trend-based, event-based, and combined criteria were defined to determine the progression. VF-blocks were considered ""progressed"" if progression occurred within 3 years; the progression was further confirmed after 3 years. We constructed 6 convolutional neural network (NN) models and 2 linear models: regression on global indices and pointwise linear regression (PLR). We compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of each model for the prediction of glaucomatous VF progression. Results: Among 43,260 VF-blocks, 4406 (10.2%), 4376 (10.1%), and 2394 (5.5%) VF-blocks were classified as progression-based on trend-based and event-based and combined criteria. For all 3 criteria, the progression group was significantly older and had worse initial MD and VF index (VFI) than the nonprogression group (P < .001 for all). The best-performing NN model had an AUROC of 0.864 with a sensitivity of 0.42 at a specificity of 0.95. In contrast, an AUROC of 0.611 was estimated from a sensitivity of 0.28 at a specificity of 0.84 for the PLR. Conclusions: The NN models incorporating spatial-ordinal characteristics demonstrated significantly better performance than the linear models in the prediction of glaucomatous VF progression.