Changes in the Long-term Prognosis of Crohn's Disease between 1986 and 2015: The Population-Based Songpa-Kangdong Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study

Abstract

Background/aims: The long-term course of Crohn's disease (CD) has never been evaluated in non-Caucasian population-based cohorts. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the longterm prognosis of Korean CD patients in the well-defined population-based Songpa-Kangdong inflammatory bowel disease cohort.

Methods: Outcomes of disease and their predictors were evaluated for 418 patients diagnosed with CD between 1986 and 2015.

Results: During a median of 123 months, systemic corticosteroids, thiopurines, and anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) agents were administered to 58.6%, 81.3%, and 37.1% of patients, respectively. Over time, the cumulative probability of starting corticosteroids significantly decreased (p=0.001), whereas that of starting thiopurines and anti-TNFs significantly increased (both p<0.001). The cumulative probability of behavioral progression was 54.5% at 20 years, and it significantly decreased during the anti-TNF era. Intestinal resection was required for 113 patients (27.0%). The cumulative probabilities of intestinal resection at 1, 5, 10, 20, and 25 years after CD diagnosis were 12.7%, 16.5%, 23.8%, 45.1%, and 51.2%, respectively. Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified stricturing behavior at diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.55 to 4.71), penetrating behavior at diagnosis (aHR, 11.15; 95% CI, 6.91 to 17.97), and diagnosis of CD during the anti-TNF era (aHR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.76) as independently associated with intestinal resection. The standardized mortality ratio among CD patients was 1.36 (95% CI, 0.59 to 2.68).

Conclusions: The long-term prognosis of Korean patients with CD is at least as good as that of Western CD patients, as indicated by the low intestinal resection rate. Moreover, behavioral progression and intestinal resection rates have decreased over the past 3 decades.