Development and validation of a new risk scoring system for solid tumor patients with suspected infection

Abstract

This study aimed to develop a new prognostic model for predicting 30-day mortality in solid tumor patients with suspected infection. This study is a retrospective cohort study and was conducted from August 2019 to December 2019 at a single center. Adult active solid tumor patients with suspected infection were enrolled among visitors to the emergency room (ER). Logistic regression analysis was used to identify potential predictors for a new model. A total of 899 patients were included; 450 in the development cohort and 449 in the validation cohort. Six independent variables predicted 30-day mortality: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS), peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), creatinine, bilirubin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and lactate. The C-statistic of the new scoring system was 0.799 in the development cohort and 0.793 in the validation cohort. The C-statistics in the development cohort was significantly higher than those of SOFA [0.723 (95% CI: 0.663–0.783)], qSOFA [0.596 (95% CI: 0.537–0.655)], and SIRS [0.547 (95% CI: 0.483–0.612)]. The discriminative capability of the new cancer-specific risk scoring system was good in solid tumor patients with suspected infection. The new scoring model was superior to SOFA, qSOFA, and SIRS in predicting mortality.