Future Projections and Uncertainties of CMIP6 for Hydrological Indicators and Their Discrepancies from CMIP5 over South Korea

Abstract

Future climate projections and their uncertainties affect many aspects of the world, so reliable assessments are essential for policymakers who need to prepare mitigation measures in the context of climate change. In this study, we examined the projected future climate and estimated uncertainty for South Korea using results from the global climate model (GCM), updated from the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6); we then compared the differences in outcome between the fifth and sixth phases of the CMIP (CMIP5 and CMIP6). Future projections were estimated as the averaged climatological mean (denoted as CM) for the four proposed hydrological indicators. Model uncertainty (UEMI) and stochastic uncertainty (USTO) were quantified as the range of ensembles of the climatological mean, while the emission uncertainty (UEMI) was estimated as the difference between the CM values of two emission scenarios. The following are the key findings of our study: (1) using an ensemble of multiple GCMs is recommended over using individual GCMs, and models in CMIP6 performed better for reproducing climate during the control period than models in the CMIP5; (2) the CM values in the CMIP6 increased for future periods, especially toward the end of this century, increasing mean temperature (meanTa) by approximately 5◦C, total precipitation (totPr), and daily maximum precipitation (maxDa) by about 20%, and these values were higher than those of the CMIP5; (3) the UGCM, USTO, and UEMI values increased for future periods in most of the indices; (4) the UGCM (for meanTa, totPr, and maxDa) and USTO (for totPr and maxDa) magnitudes in the CMIP6 were higher than those in the CMIP5, while the UEMI values between the two CMIPs were similar for all of the indices; (5) the UGCM was the major source of the largest uncertainty for meanTa, the USTO had a significant impact on future projections of totPr and maxDa, especially in the summer, and the UEMI became the dominant source of uncertainty for projecting the future meanTa, especially in the period farthest from the present. These results should provide useful information for studies that quantify future climate-induced hydrological impacts.