Artificial Intelligence Mortality Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Surgery Based on Body Morphometry, Nutritional, and Surgical Information: Feasibility Study

Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop a mortality prediction model for patients undergoing gastric cancer surgery based on body morphometry, nutritional, and surgical information. Using a prospectively built gastric surgery registry from the Asan Medical Center (AMC), 621 gastric cancer patients, who were treated with surgery with no recurrence of cancer, were selected for the development of the prediction model. Input features (i.e., body morphometry, nutritional, surgical, and clinicopathologic information) were selected in the collected data based on the XGBoost analysis results and experts’ opinions. A convolutional neural network (CNN) framework was eveloped to predict the mortality of patients undergoing gastric cancer surgery. Internal validation was performed in split datasets of the AMC, whereas external validation was performed in patients in the Ajou University Hospital. Fifteen features were selected for the prediction of survival probability based on the XGBoost analysis results and experts’ suggestions. Accuracy, F1 score, and area under the curve of our CNN model were 0.900, 0.909, and 0.900 in the internal validation set and 0.879, 0.882, and 0.881 in the external validation set, respectively. Our developed CNN model was published on a website where anyone could predict mortality using individual patients’ data. Our CNN model provides substantially good performance in predicting mortality in patients undergoing surgery for gastric cancer, mainly based on body morphometry, nutritional, and surgical information. Using the web application, clinicians and gastric cancer patients will be able to efficiently manage mortality risk factors.