Identification of hepatic steatosis in living liver donors by machine learning models

Abstract

Selecting an optimal donor for living donor liver transplantation is crucial for the safety of both the donor and recipient, and hepatic steatosis is an important consideration. We aimed to build a prediction model with noninvasive variables to evaluate macrovesicular steatosis in potential donors by using various prediction models. The study population comprised potential living donors who had undergone donation workup, including percutaneous liver biopsy, in the Republic of Korea between 2016 and 2019. Meaningful macrovesicular hepatic steatosis was defined as >5%. Whole data were divided into training (70.5%) and test (29.5%) data sets based on the date of liver biopsy. Random forest, support vector machine, regularized discriminant analysis, mixture discriminant analysis, flexible discriminant analysis, and deep neural network machine learning methods as well as traditional logistic regression were employed. The mean patient age was 31.4 years, and 66.3% of the patients were men. Of the 1652 patients, 518 (31.4%) had >5% macrovesicular steatosis on the liver biopsy specimen. The logistic model had the best prediction power and prediction performances with an accuracy of 80.0% and 80.9% in the training and test data sets, respectively. A cut-off value of 31.1% for the predicted risk of hepatic steatosis was selected with a sensitivity of 77.7% and specificity of 81.0%. We have provided our model on the website (https://hanseungbong.shinyapps.io/shiny_app_up/) under the name DONATION Model. Our algorithm to predict macrovesicular steatosis using routine parameters is beneficial for identifying optimal potential living donors by avoiding superfluous liver biopsy results.