Residential Mobility Intention by Tenure Type in Korea

Abstract

본 논문은 서울의 1,500가구를 대상으로 하여 주택소유형태에 따른 주거이동의향을 이분외생변수를 가지는 축차프로빗모형을 사용하여 추정하였다. 본 논문에서는 가구의 주거이동의사결정을 경제적 측면에서의 가구의 주거서비스 소비의 불균형뿐만 아니라 가구의 사회심리적 행태 측면에서도 조사해 보았다. 주거서비스 소비에서의 불균형이 클수록 주거이동의향은 높게 나타났지만, 그 한계효과는 기대했던 것 보다 낮았다. 차가의 경우, 모든 조건이 같다면 간은 집에서 산 기간이 4.5년이 되기까지는 이사의향이 커지지만 그 이후에는 낮아진다. 주거서비스의 개선을 위한 저축은 잠지적 주거이동의 확률과 강력한 양의 관계를 가지는 데, 이것은 한국에서의 불?舅徨? 주택금융시장의 운영측면을 암시하고 있다. 주거이동의향의 확률은 가구주의 나이가 높아짐에 따라 낮아지며, 같은 나이이면 가구소득이 높아짐에 따라 주거이동의향이 높아진다. 또한 강남의 신개발지역 거주자의 주거이동의향이 강북지역보다 높게 나타난다. 마지막으로 선진국의 경우와는 달리 주거이동의향의 확률이 차가와 자가간에 유의한 차이가 없다는 점이 한국주택시장의 한 특징으로 나타났다.

The present paper jointly estimates residential mobility intention and tenure status in Seoul, Korea, with using a recursive probit model including a dichotomous endogenous variable. Furthermore, this paper incorporates the disequilibrium frame work and the behavioral aspects of household mobility decision analysis. Disequilibrium in housing services consumption significantly changes the probability of expected moving, but the marginal effects are smaller than we expected. The interaction assumption of duration-of-stay is well supported by the estimation results, especially for renters. The probability of moving intention increases up to 4.5 years of duration at a same place, and then it declines, if everything else is equal, for renters. Savings for housing services improvement have a strong and positive relationship with the probability of expected moving. It is a particular effect in the context of imperfect housing financing market in Korea. The probability of moving intention declines with age of household head. Given an age group, the probability increases as household income grow, and the probability appears higher in the newly developed areas than in the old areas of Seoul, Korea. Finally, in contrast to the findings from the previous studies, tenure status has no significant impact on moving intention.

The present paper jointly estimates residential mobility intention and tenure status in Seoul, Korea, with using a recursive probit model including a dichotomous endogenous variable. Furthermore, this paper incorporates the disequilibrium frame work and the behavioral aspects of household mobility decision analysis. Disequilibrium in housing services consumption significantly changes the probability of expected moving, but the marginal effects are smaller than we expected. The interaction assumption of duration-of-stay is well supported by the estimation results, especially for renters. The probability of moving intention increases up to 4.5 years of duration at a same place, and then it declines, if everything else is equal, for renters. Savings for housing services improvement have a strong and positive relationship with the probability of expected moving. It is a particular effect in the context of imperfect housing financing market in Korea. The probability of moving intention declines with age of household head. Given an age group, the probability increases as household income grow, and the probability appears higher in the newly developed areas than in the old areas of Seoul, Korea. Finally, in contrast to the findings from the previous studies, tenure status has no significant impact on moving intention.