기업의 현금흐름 예측치로서의 현금흐름과 회계이익

Abstract

본 연구에서는 기업의 미래현금흐름을 예측하기 위하여 회계이익과 현금흐름 자체 중 어느 것이 더 우월 한가를 실증적으로 검증하였다. 이를 위하여 손익계산서상의 당기순이익, 법인세차감전 순이익, 경상이익, 영업이익과 현금흐름표의 영업활동으로부터의 현금흐름, 투자활동으로부터의 현금흐름을 변수로 사용하여 현금흐름변수와 회계이익변수간에 상관관계가 있는가를 살펴 보았다. 또한 변수가 하나인 단순선형모델을 사용하여 예측오차율을 계산하여 회계이익과 현금흐름의 예측능력을 비교하였다. 결과는 현금흐름변수와 회계이익변수간에는 상관관계가 있는 것으로 드러났으며, 미래 현금흐름의 예측에 있어서는 회계이익, 특히 영업이익의 예측능력이 우월한 것으로 나타났다. 이 실증연구의 결과는 미국의 재무회계개념보고서 제1호에서 주장하는 회계이익의 예측력 우월을 지지하고 있다.

This study empirically investigated whether current earnings or current cashflow is the better predictor of future cash flow. Using net income, income before taxes, continuing income, operating income, cash flow from operating activities, and cash flow from investing activities as variables, correlations among those variables were examined. The prediction ability of accounting incomes and cash flows were compared on the basis of absolute prediction error rates that were computed using a simple linear model. The results revealed that measures of cash flows were correlated with those of accounting incomes, and showed that operating income appeared to be the best predictor of cash flow variables. Thus, this results of the study support the FASB's assertions that earnings provide better forecasts of future cash flows than do cash flow measures themselves.

This study empirically investigated whether current earnings or current cashflow is the better predictor of future cash flow. Using net income, income before taxes, continuing income, operating income, cash flow from operating activities, and cash flow from investing activities as variables, correlations among those variables were examined. The prediction ability of accounting incomes and cash flows were compared on the basis of absolute prediction error rates that were computed using a simple linear model. The results revealed that measures of cash flows were correlated with those of accounting incomes, and showed that operating income appeared to be the best predictor of cash flow variables. Thus, this results of the study support the FASB's assertions that earnings provide better forecasts of future cash flows than do cash flow measures themselves.