세계행정학의 미래전망에 관한 계량적 연구:델파이 기법을 중심으로한 회귀,요인분석

Abstract

본 연구는 한국행정의 나아갈 미래상을 조망해 보고 점망해 보기위해 델파이기법을 통한 계량적 접근으로 세계행정학의 추세를 미래예측적 시각에서 관망해보려고 하며 여기에서 도출된 세계행정학의 흐름이 향후 한국행정학도 조우하게될 사항으로 이해하여 한국행정의 미래상을 정립하는데 있어 본보기가 될 수 있는 준거틀을 구성해보려고 한다. 나아가서는 이러한 미래전망의 준거틀에 정확성과 객관성을 확보하기위해 세계행정학의 흐름을 계량적으로 접근하여 실증적 지표발굴을 통해 개념화 시키고 그 이론적 맥락을 행정학의 범세계적 변화추세 속에서 예측정리하려고 시도하였다. 이러한 노력은 한국?旋ㅗ隙? 재조명하고 앞으로의 발전 방향을 모색하는데 있어 보다 보편타당성이 있는 이론적 모델을 제시해 줄 것이다. 이러한 연구목적에 따라 연구를 시도한 결과 다음과 같은 연구 결과를 도출하였다. 첫째, 금후 행정학에 밀접한 영향을 줄 수 있는 세계환경으로 컴퓨터에 기인한 기술혁신, 국제테러리즘, 인구문제, 핵파괴, 비공공조지과 민간기업활용증대, 식량문제, 보호주의정책, 군부 개입등이다. 이러한 세계환경의 영향을 금후 행정학과 관련지어 살펴보면 컴퓨터나 기술혁신은 실증적이고 계량적인 분야의 발전을 상징할 수 있고 국제테러리즘, 비공공조직과 민간기업의 활용증대, 보호주의 정책, 군부의 개입 등은 정치적 맥락의 가치규범적 분야의 발전을 예기할 수 있고 실업, 식량문제, 연구문제들을 사회보장이나 복지행정분야의 비중강화를 의미한다 하겠다. 둘째, 금후 행정학과목으로써 계속 발전하고 새롭게 발생할 분야로는 조직이론, 정보과학, 컴퓨터학, 정책과학, 형평론, 공공윤리 등이다. 세번째로, 계속적용, 원용, 창출될행정학 연구접근방법으로 체계접근, 구조기능적 접근, 컴퓨터 시물레이션, 사례접근법, 비용편익, 서어베이 연구, 윤리적 접근 등이 선호되고 그에 못지않게 실증적, 계량적 및 가치, 규범적 접근이 같이 혼용되어 사용되며 실증적, 계량적 접근이 괄목하게 사용 될 것임을 예측하고 있다. 이것은 세계환경이나 금후 발전할 행정학 이론분야에서 기술혁신이나 정보과학, 컴퓨터학 등의 발전이 이를 뒷받침해 준다. 네째, 비교분석이 이루어질 행정학의 주요대상영역으론 예산분야, 문화적 가치분야, 공행정 대 민간행정, 인사분야, 공기업, 관료제의 병리, 조직발전, 공공정책집행, 행정개혁, 행정과 환경 등을 들 수 있다. 이는 앞으로 보편적 일반이론을 추구키위해 각 나라의 예산체계나 예산구조, 그 내용 그리고 문하적 요인에 의한 이론의 차이등을 폭넓게 연구하게 되고 객관적 이론 도출을 위한 연구분야는 상기분야들이 각광을 받게 될 것이라는 점을 알 수 있는 것이다.

마지막으로 토착화의 개념과 보편적 세계행정학의 정립을 위해선 토착화는 개념이나 이론등이 새로운 아이디어나 체계와 절차에 의해 수정되고 문화적 패턴이나 전통적 형태등의 변화가 수반되는 상호적응의 과정이며 수정된 이론과 방법들이 새로운 문화속으로 침잠해 들어가 기존의 문화권에서의 의미를 상실 또는 변질시키는 것을 의미한다 하겠다. 보편적 세계행정학의 정립이란 비록 문화나 여건이 다르다해도 행정학이론이 현상을 설명하기위해 사용되어진다면 그것은 일반이론이 되는 것이란 입장을 취하고 있는 것이다.

This study attempts to identify an ideographic theory of korean public administration through the analysis of indigenization trends, by utilizing delphi exercise, extends its focus to forecasting the future development of theory and methods in korean public administration in a world context.

The more inward looking pattern of korean public administration study will be influenced in the future by the world environment of technological innovation, protectionism, terrorism, population, nuclear weapons, and military involvement in politics. The results of a delphi analysis, collecting the responses of professional analysts and professors related to public administration and government officials in the pacific regions indicate that the influential factors expected to affect public administration in the future are: 1) the changing pattern of ideological and belife systems(25.6%) 2) international conflict and terrorism(23.2%), 3) computer and technological innovation(19.2%), and 4) population, unemployment, food shortage, military involvement in politics etc.(16.8%). The study also predicts that the most likely theoretical contents in the future are: 1) organization theory(26.9%), 2) information science and computer science(23.3%), 3) equity and ctizens' participation(21.7%).

Therefore it is imperative that quantitative methods be used to develop computer and technological innovation in the business of government, and normative analysis will be helpul to pursue such factors as international terrorism and the rising role of private organizations and business in government. This studyreveals that welfare administration is likely to strengthen its theoretical implications to explore unemployment problems, food shortages and the population explosion.

According to delphi analysis, organization theory, information science, computer science, policy science and public ethics will be further developed, while both empirical and normative approaches are likely to be developed at the same time. The public administration experts also forecast that the most likely methods are: 1) quantitative computer simulation(29.8%), 2) systems analysis(26.4%), 3) structural approach(16.5%), and 4) normative analytical methods(11.6%). The study also demonstrates that comparative administration will continuously expand in the following areas: 1) the traditional theory of organization (31.7%) 2) policy science(19.5%), 3) environment, energy, urban and regional affairs(12.2%), 4) personnel, budgeting and public corporation(13%), and public ethics(13%). Specifically speaking, systems analysis, structural-functional approach, computer simulation, case study, cost-benefit analysis and surveys methods are the most promising methods to be utilized. The areas to be developed in comparative administration include budget management, administrative culture, personnel administration, bureaucracy, organizational development, policy analysis, and private and public management interaction. The indigenization of public administration study in a certain country may be defined as an interaction process through which a particular theory is adapted and revised to fit with existing theory and individual administrative culture.

This study attempts to identify an ideographic theory of korean public administration through the analysis of indigenization trends, by utilizing delphi exercise, extends its focus to forecasting the future development of theory and methods in korean public administration in a world context.

The more inward looking pattern of korean public administration study will be influenced in the future by the world environment of technological innovation, protectionism, terrorism, population, nuclear weapons, and military involvement in politics. The results of a delphi analysis, collecting the responses of professional analysts and professors related to public administration and government officials in the pacific regions indicate that the influential factors expected to affect public administration in the future are: 1) the changing pattern of ideological and belife systems(25.6%) 2) international conflict and terrorism(23.2%), 3) computer and technological innovation(19.2%), and 4) population, unemployment, food shortage, military involvement in politics etc.(16.8%). The study also predicts that the most likely theoretical contents in the future are: 1) organization theory(26.9%), 2) information science and computer science(23.3%), 3) equity and ctizens' participation(21.7%).

Therefore it is imperative that quantitative methods be used to develop computer and technological innovation in the business of government, and normative analysis will be helpul to pursue such factors as international terrorism and the rising role of private organizations and business in government. This studyreveals that welfare administration is likely to strengthen its theoretical implications to explore unemployment problems, food shortages and the population explosion.

According to delphi analysis, organization theory, information science, computer science, policy science and public ethics will be further developed, while both empirical and normative approaches are likely to be developed at the same time. The public administration experts also forecast that the most likely methods are: 1) quantitative computer simulation(29.8%), 2) systems analysis(26.4%), 3) structural approach(16.5%), and 4) normative analytical methods(11.6%). The study also demonstrates that comparative administration will continuously expand in the following areas: 1) the traditional theory of organization (31.7%) 2) policy science(19.5%), 3) environment, energy, urban and regional affairs(12.2%), 4) personnel, budgeting and public corporation(13%), and public ethics(13%). Specifically speaking, systems analysis, structural-functional approach, computer simulation, case study, cost-benefit analysis and surveys methods are the most promising methods to be utilized. The areas to be developed in comparative administration include budget management, administrative culture, personnel administration, bureaucracy, organizational development, policy analysis, and private and public management interaction. The indigenization of public administration study in a certain country may be defined as an interaction process through which a particular theory is adapted and revised to fit with existing theory and individual administrative culture.